The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) has released its September quarter Agricultural Commodities Report, forecasting agricultural export earnings to reach a record $70.3 billion for 2022-2023 — about 50 per cent more compared 10 years ago when inflation was taken into consideration.
ABARES Executive Director Dr Jared Greenville said the industry’s overall forecasted gross value of $81.8 billion shows it is performing strongly, with cropping leading the way.
“Winter crop prospects in Australia are looking very promising at the beginning of spring – we’re forecasting a 55.5 million tonne harvest. Meat production is also rebounding, with the national herd and flock returning to pre-drought levels,” Greenville stated.
According to Greenville, favourable seasonal conditions are anticipated to continue, but global inflation and rising costs of farm inputs could cloud the outlook for demand and farm incomes.
“It’s the first time our exports are expected to exceed $70 billion, showing the ability of our farmers to navigate considerable global economic uncertainty and to make a strong contribution to global food supplies,” he said.
He stated that the likelihood of a third consecutive La Nia, which occurs roughly once every 30 years, was taken into account in the most recent ABARES forecasts, as well as tapering global growth.
He named widespread inflation and a sluggish Chinese economy as the main watchpoints.
“Global food and fertiliser prices remain very high despite falling from peaks earlier in 2022. The World Bank expects high global food prices through to the end of 2024 which will have adverse implications for global food security,” he added.
With the continued demand for Australian food and fibre on the global stage, a bumper winter crop, and the expectation of continued favourable growing conditions, he claimed that Australian agriculture was seen as leaning into uncertainty.
ABARES reports that cotton exports are anticipated to reach a record $7 billion in value in 2022-2023, ranking third in export commodity value behind beef ($10.2 billion) and wheat ($11.7 billion).
The ABARES September 2022 Australian Crop Report also forecasts near-record wheat and canola production levels for 2022-2023.
“For where we’re looking at 32.2 million tonnes, and for canola, we’re expecting 6.6 million tonnes, just shy of the record last year. Barley production has also been strong and is forecast to reach 12.3 million tonnes, the fourth largest on record,” Greenville said.
In 2022–2023, planting summer crops is anticipated to be significantly above average due to the availability of soil moisture and sizable areas of land that were previously fallow during the winter.
