Farm export earnings to increase in 2013-14

Australia’s farm export earnings in 2013-14 will be around 8% higher than the average over the decade according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).

The bureau’s latest outlook for Australia’s key agricultural commodities for the September quarter published last week reports that Australia’s farm exports are valued to be around $37.2 billion in 2013-14, following a recent high of $38 billion in 2012. According to the report, at this level, farm export earnings are to increase in real terms (net of inflation).

The publication updating ABARES forecasts released in June predicted export earnings from crops to decline by 8.1% in 2013-14 to around $21.2 billion, following a rise of 6.6% in 2012-13 while export earnings from livestock and livestock products were forecast to increase by 7.6%.

World prices of grains and oilseeds were mostly forecast to average lower in 2013-14, due to increased supplies in the United States and the Black Sea region. However, the adverse impact on Australia’s farm export earnings is expected to be partly offset by an assumed lower value of the Australian dollar in 2013-14.

The report forecast an increase in export earnings for beef and veal, dairy and wine at 6%, 15% and 8% respectively in 2013-14 contrasted by lower export earnings forecast for wheat, canola and cotton down 4%, 33% and 16% respectively.

Farm production, in aggregate, was said to improve with a 1.7% rise in 2013-14 compared to the 2.9% decline in 2012-13.

The gross value of crop production was forecast to remain largely unchanged in 2013-14 while the gross value of livestock production was to increase by 8.2% to $21.3 billion.

For forest products, export earnings were forecast to increase by 6% to $2.2 billion in 2013-14, following an 8.4% drop to $2 billion previously. Meanwhile, fisheries products export earnings were forecast to increase by 6% to around $1.2 billion in 2013-14, following a decline of 4.2% in 2012-13.

The gross value of farm production was forecast to increase by 3.5% in 2013-14 to $49 billion, after declining by 1.5% to $47.3 billion in 2012-13. If achieved this will be a record value in nominal terms.