Australian agriculture production is expected to decline due to rising global supply and drier conditions, with ABARES‘ David Galeano reporting a forecast total value of $78 billion in 2023-24.
The projected production for 2022-23 is $16 billion lower than the estimated values, but it still holds the third-highest result on record.
According to Galeano, the forecasted fall is due to drier conditions impacting record-high crop production levels seen in 2022-23.
“In total, Australian crop production values are expected to fall by $12 billion in 2023-24. Livestock production values are also forecast to decline reflecting recent price falls,” he explained.
Furthermore, he added that the decline in production values and incomes is linked to declining global prices resulting from increased global supply.
He stated that agriculture has experienced record-breaking crop production in the past three years due to increased rainfall, but as the El Niño period approaches, national crop production is expected to decrease.
“Crop prospects for winter crops over spring have been mixed, and planting of summer crops in 2023-24 is expected to fall reflecting below-average rainfall and low soil moisture levels during the early planting window,” he said.
“Drier conditions and lower prices mean average broadacre farm cash incomes are forecast to fall strong in 2023-24,” he added. “However, the past 3 years of high incomes have allowed broadacre farms to build up liquid assets, which should help cushion the forecast downturn.”
