Research from the CSIRO and the University of Southern Queensland has confirmed that global coffee production is threatened by increasing and concurrent hazards caused by climate change.
Climate hazards, such as severe temperature and rainfall, have grown in every region of the world’s top 12 coffee-producing regions between 1980 and 2020, according to the study, and are occurring in many locations simultaneously.
The study, published in PLOS Climate, is the first to look at the changing nature of concurrent dangers to coffee production worldwide.
CSIRO research scientist Doug Richardson stated that coffee is a sensitive crop that is vulnerable to climate change.
“Coffee crops can fail if the annual average temperature and rainfall is not within an optimal range,” Dr Richardson said.
According to Dr Richardson, over the last 40 years, the frequency of climatic events has increased, and the team found obvious evidence of global warming having a role since the significant types of climate hazards have moved from cold and wet to warm and dry.
“Since 1980, global coffee production has become increasingly at risk of synchronised crop failures, which can be driven by climate hazards that affect multiple coffee-producing areas simultaneously,” he added.
CSIRO scientist James Risbey stated that some recurring climate patterns are major forecasters of danger in coffee-growing regions.
“The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – a recurring climate pattern affecting the tropics and extratropics – can help predict hazards in some regions like tropical South America, Indonesia and Vietnam.” Dr Risbey said.
According to Dr Risbey, the good news is that ENSO looks to be having less of an influence on Southern Brazil, which is the world’s largest producer of Arabica coffee.
“Southern Brazil could therefore help to dampen coffee production shocks felt elsewhere during significant ENSO events like prolonged cool weather (La Niña) or warm weather (El Niño),” Dr Risbey added.
Earlier international studies suggested that areas suitable for cultivating coffee could be reduced by up to 50% by 2050.
