The ACCC‘s September 2023 interim gas inquiry report indicates that Australia’s east coast gas market should have a 1.4 petajoule (PJ) surplus in the first quarter of 2024, even if LNG producers export their uncontracted gas.
The report predicts a high LNG export demand and reduced residential gas heating demand in the east coast market for wholesale gas from January to March 2024.
Regionally, Australia’s southern states are expected to have a three-PJ surplus to satisfy local demand, but Queensland will require an additional one-PJ of gas to meet local demand if LNG producers export all of their uncontracted gas.
ACCC Commissioner Anna Brakey said the Commission expects gas swap arrangements will be critical in balancing gas supply needs across 2024.
“The LNG producers have entered into gas swap arrangements with other gas businesses to access additional gas for export during the summer months. Under these arrangements, they will then return the gas to market in higher demand periods, such as the winter months,” Brakey stated.
Recent investments in critical pipeline infrastructure have also made it easier to move gas between northern and southern states, and additional enhancements are projected to be completed by the winter of next year.
