The annual Global Carbon Budget has been released at the COP28 in Dubai, which found that total fossil carbon emissions are expected to reach a new high of 36.8 billion tonnes in 2023.
The international report indicates that while many countries are reducing or slowing down carbon emissions, the pace and scale of progress are insufficient to achieve net zero emissions.
CSIRO Global Carbon Project Executive Director and report author Dr Pep Canadell said the annual analysis suggests that if current global carbon dioxide emissions persist, the Earth’s climate system could reach 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in seven years.
The Paris Agreement commits to continuing efforts to keep global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
“The latest Global Carbon Budget shows progress in an increasing number of countries but faster, larger, and sustained efforts are needed to avoid significant negative impacts of climate change on human health, the economy, and the environment,” Dr Canadell said.
“If the temperature targets of the Paris Agreement are crossed, the global effort to reach net zero emissions will require a massive, and perhaps unachievable, scale-up of deliberate carbon dioxide removal to bring down global temperatures.”
Global emissions from the usage of fossil fuels are expected to climb 1.1% in 2023, reaching 36.8 billion tonnes of CO2.
Fossil emissions are expected to rise, with oil being the most significant, at 1.5%, primarily due to the resumption of ground transport and aviation following the COVID-19 pandemic’s shutdowns.
Meanwhile, coal emissions, which account for 41% of global emissions, are predicted to rise by 1.1%.
According to the CSIRO, the current CO2 reductions from reforestation or afforestation are insufficient to counteract the emissions from permanent forest loss caused by deforestation.
The Global Carbon Budget, based on peer-reviewed scientific studies, provides precise information about the natural and anthropogenic sources and sinks of carbon dioxide worldwide.
The Global Carbon Budget was created in 2006 to establish a shared and mutually agreed-upon knowledge base on greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. It is a research partner of the World Climate Research Programme and an international research effort within the Future Earth research initiative on global sustainability.
The Global Carbon Budget has contributed to the publishing of the first Global Stocktake at COP28.
The analysis is also valuable for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which publish studies on climate change induced by human activities.
