Australia’s resources and energy exports are expected to grow positively despite easing commodity prices, with robust investment in major projects predicted for the coming years.
The Department of Industry, Science and Resources’ December 2023 edition of the Resources and Energy Quarterly predicts export values to decrease to $408 billion in 2023-24 and $348 billion by 2024-25, primarily due to anticipated decreases in commodity prices.
According to the Australian Government, the export projection is consistent with prior forecasts made in June and September.
The Department’s Resources and Energy Major Projects report (REMP) indicates a healthy outlook for resources investment, especially in critical minerals essential for low-emissions technologies needed for global decarbonisation.
The REMP report indicates a 75% rise in the value of committed critical minerals projects from $6.7 billion in 2022 to $11.8 billion in 2023.
Minister for Resources and Northern Australia Madeleine King said the positive outlook for critical minerals projects supports the government’s goal of being a significant exporter of renewable energy by 2030.
“Australia’s resources sector remains the engine room of the nation’s economy,” Minister King stated.
“Resources are critical not only to our prosperity, but to our commitment to reducing carbon emissions and reaching net zero,” Minister King noted. “The road to net zero runs through Australia’s resources sector.”
Minister King added that the Major Projects report demonstrated Australia’s robust state of investment and continuing expansion in the Australian critical minerals sector.
The REMP reports that Australia has 421 resources and energy projects under development, up from 393 in October, with 86 committed projects worth $77 billion and 46 projects worth $30 billion at the advanced feasibility stage.
The value of project completions increased for the third year in a row, with 29 projects worth $21 billion reaching commercial production over the year to October 2023.
Changes have been made to the classification of projects at different stages of development this year to enhance data quality, causing some categories to be incomparable across previous reports.
The REQ reports that iron ore prices have remained strong, largely due to China’s economic stimulus, and predicts an increase in export earnings to $131 billion in 2023-24, before declining to $102 billion in 2024-25.
LNG earnings are predicted to decrease from $92 billion in 2022-23 to $73 billion this year and $64 billion in 2024-25, according to previous forecasts.
Australian lithium exports are expected to decrease to $14 billion this year and stabilize at $15 billion in 2024-25 due to lower global lithium prices.
The earnings from metallurgical coal and thermal coal are expected to decrease due to lower prices, with metallurgical coal earnings expected to reach $52 billion in 2023-24 and $41 billion in 2024-25, and thermal coal earnings at $36 billion and $29 billion respectively.
