The September edition of the Resources and Energy Quarterly from the Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources predicts that Australia’s resources and energy exports will earn a record $349 billion for 2021-22, with a strong recovery for coal and despite lower iron ore prices and the ongoing impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic.
According to Minister for Resources and Water Keith Pitt, the report has found that Australia is experiencing a surge in export earnings driven by high commodity prices, solid growth in export volumes and a weaker Australian dollar.
He said the report forecasts overall export earnings to hit $349 billion in 2021-22 – beating the $310 billion in total export earnings in 2020-21 – before falling back to around $299 billion in 2022-23.
“The sector has gone from strength to strength and is performing better than it was pre-pandemic, further building on Australia’s reputation as a reliable and stable supplier of resources and energy,” Minister Pitt said.
“The forecast export earnings for 2021-22 are close to $100 billion higher than they were a year ago during the peak of the global pandemic and is testament to the outstanding work of all involved in this critically import sector.
“This forecast growth in both export values and volumes will help create further jobs and opportunities in the resources sector, particularly across regional Australia.”
The latest Resources and Energy Quarterly forecasts Australia’s iron ore export earnings to drop from a record $153 billion in 2020-21 to $132 billion in 2021-22, due to lower world prices, although export volumes are expected to grow steadily from 868 million tonnes in 2020-21 to 939 million tonnes by 2022-23.
Its findings suggest that coal prices have more than recovered all of their 2020 losses, with supply problems and surging demand from steel producers in the major producing nations causing Australian metallurgical coal prices to hit multi-year highs.
According to the report, exports of metallurgical coal are forecast to rise from 171 million tonnes in 2020-21 to reach 186 million tonnes by 2022-23, with revenue predicted to rebound from $23 billion in 2020-21 to $33 billion in 2021-22.
Thermal coal export values are expected to rise from $16 billion in 2020-21 to $24 billion in 2021-22, before easing back to $19 billion in 2022-23.
The Quarterly also notes that Australia overtook China as the world’s largest gold producing country in the first half of 2021. Gold export earnings are forecast at $29 billion in 2021-22, before a decline to $27 billion in 2022-23, as gold prices ease back.
Further, Australian LNG export earnings are forecast to increase from $30 billion in 2020-21 to $56 billion in 2021-22, as oil-linked contract LNG prices rise sharply.
Lithium export earnings are expected to increase from $1.1 billion in 2020-21 to $3.8 billion in 2022-23, driven by increased spodumene production, and exports of lithium hydroxide after first production occurred in August 2021.
