A group of international scientists led by the Oregon State University have utilised a 500-year dataset to develop a “restorative” approach to mitigate the negative ecological and social impacts of climate change.
Researchers propose a “paradigm-shifting” plan that emphasises social and economic justice, environmental sustainability, and climate modelling, thereby guiding society towards a new course of action.
Oregon State’s William Ripple, former OSU postdoctoral Christopher Wolf, and colleagues propose that their scenario should be included in climate models alongside the five “shared socioeconomic pathways” (SSPs) used by the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
“We understand that our proposed scenario may be a major challenge to implement given current trends in emissions, a lack of political will and widespread social denial, but its merits can’t even be honestly debated if it’s not included in the suite of options,” OSU College of Forestry Professor of Ecology and the Richardson Chair in Forest Science William Ripple said.
“We’re arguing for radical incrementalism: achieving massive change through small, short-term steps. And we’re offering a much-needed contrast to many other climate scenarios, which may be more aligned with the status quo, which isn’t working.”
Ripple and co-authors from the US, Netherlands, and Australia present a restorative pathway in a paper published in Environmental Research Letters, based on a unique compilation of Earth system variables illustrating ecological overshoot since 1850.
“The supporting data underscore the urgent need for action. The growth in human population, gross domestic product and energy consumption, primarily reliant on fossil fuels, has led to an extraordinary surge in greenhouse gas emissions, dramatically altering land use and triggering a massive biodiversity decline,” Wolf said.
The authors highlight the need for improved climate change modelling, which relies on multiple assumptions and factors related to policy options and societal developments. They propose the development of SSPs to derive greenhouse gas emissions scenarios under different policies.
“The SSPs describe plausible developments that in the future would lead to different challenges for climate change mitigation and adaptation,” Wolf said. “They’re based on five narratives that describe alternative socioeconomic developments, some more sustainable than others. Our scenario focuses on reducing the consumption of primary resources to a level that keeps environmental pressures within planetary boundaries, with per capita GDP stabilizing over time.”
Wolf, Ripple, and colleagues analysed various factors such as fossil fuel emissions, human population, GDP, land use, greenhouse gas concentrations, global temperature, vertebrate wildlife species abundance, income inequality, and meat production.
The authors, including Jillian Gregg from Terrestrial Ecosystems Research Associates, Detlef van Vuuren from the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, and Manfred Lenzen from the University of Sydney, provide a comprehensive analysis of Earth’s significant changes.
“The income share variable extends back to 1820 and shows how the top 10% have consistently received at least 50% of all income, illustrating global economic inequality over the long term,” Ripple said. “The restorative pathway would represent a more equitable and resilient world with a focus on nature preservation as a natural climate solution; societal well-being and quality of life; equality and high levels of education for girls and women, resulting in low fertility rates and higher standards of living; and a rapid transition toward renewable energy.”
The restorative pathway differs from current shared socioeconomic pathways as it doesn’t rely on carbon capture technologies or assumes continued economic growth as the SSPs do.
“By prioritizing large-scale societal change, our proposed pathway could limit warming much more effectively than pathways that support rising resource consumption by wealthy nations,” Ripple stated. “We aim to bend the curves on a wide range of planetary vital signs with a holistic vision for addressing climate change, biodiversity loss and socioeconomic injustice. Our work presents a case for how humanity can embark on the journey of saving the world from these environmental and social crises.”
